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大批美国军机秘密进入中东，美国会与伊朗开战吗？
本文译自Youtube，原标题：Will America Go to War With Iran?
@mendetta355
Watching this after I fled Tehran, the line "this will not end well, many will die" shook me and filled me with despair. I hope this nightmare ends
我是在逃离德黑兰后看的这段视频，“这场冲突不会有好结果，会有很多人死去”这句话彻底震撼了我，也让我充满了绝望。我只希望这一场噩梦能尽快结束。
@bababababababa6124
In the past, everyone in my country just assumed that Israel was a vassal/proxy state of the US. Now I’m starting to strongly think it’s the other way around
过去我们国家几乎所有人都觉得以色列只是美国的附庸或者代理国，但现在我越来越觉得情况可能正好相反。
@noonhe
as an Iranian who lives in Tehran, I'm terrified... these are the worst days in my life... they're treating our lives like playthings. while none of us wanted this or supported the actions of the regime... people are always the victims. I'm really scared... it's the worst feeling when you have no control over what's going to happen to you... I would beg anyone I could to stop this madness...
作为一个生活在德黑兰的伊朗人，我真的非常害怕……这是我一生中最糟糕的日子……他们把我们的生命当成了玩物。我们中没有人希望战争，也没有人支持政权的行为……可受害的总是人民。我真的非常害怕……那种对命运毫无掌控的感觉是最可怕的……我愿意向任何人下跪，只求有人能阻止这场疯狂……
@NikoFromSofia
Considering the fact that the most US military aircraft in the area went dark an hour ago, no transponders - my guess is it's happening in the next 48 hours
考虑到一个小时前该地区的大多数美军军机都已经关闭应答器并进入静默状态——我猜行动将在接下来的48小时内发生。
@jakobsieg9123
“Power makes its own rules” does sound a lot better than “Israel has never cared about committing war crimes”
And
“The world has no choice but to move on” sounds a lot better than “the west will turn a blind eye anyway”
“权力自定规则”这句话听起来确实比“以色列根本不在乎是否犯下战争罪”顺耳得多。 还有，“世界别无选择，只能继续前进”也比“反正西方会睁一只眼闭一只眼”好听太多了。
@MrJanes-cl5sj
gotta love Israeli indignation at an Iranian nuclear program when Israel's own nuclear weapons were developed illegally.
看到以色列对伊朗的核项目义愤填膺的样子真是讽刺，毕竟他们自己的核武器可是非法研发出来的。
@ronikadarvishi
Im an iranian diaspora in canada. They have completely shut off the internet and i cant contact my father in iran.
我是一个在加拿大的伊朗侨民。现在伊朗已经彻底切断了互联网连接，我完全联系不上在伊朗的父亲。
@Texas_BOS
Wherever we like it or not this event is a major turning point in history, we stand at a crossroads on what will happen for the future of the world, we can only watch and see what faith has decided for us.
无论我们愿不愿意，这都将是历史上的一个重大的转折点。我们正站在决定世界未来命运的十字路口，只能静静旁观，看命运会如何抉择。
@trevorphilips5677
As an American, let me be clear:
We do not want war with Iran
We also want Israel to fight their own wars for once.
作为一个美国人，我说得直接一点： 第一，我们不想和伊朗开战； 第二，我们也希望以色列这次能自己打一场战争。
@squirrelonmapletree
I'm just curious as to what the US isolationists who backed Trump will feel about such an event. There is no way this leads to zero political consequences.
我挺好奇那些曾支持特朗普的美国孤立主义者会怎么看待这次的局势，因为这绝不可能毫无政治后果。
@CRLFNKL
This is great information, but the fact that it is presented with "epic" music and war tech fetishizing rubs me in a very wrong way.
As if it was a video game we are talking about, but no. These are real people and countries.
Im not blaming anyone, but man.
What values are our world based on?
这些信息确实不错，但配上“史诗级”的音乐，再加上对战争技术的迷恋，真的让我很不舒服。 就像我们在谈论一款电子游戏，但不是啊，这可是真实的人和国家。 我不是要责怪谁，但说真的—— 我们的世界到底是建立在怎样的价值观之上？
@PCristi91
It's so nice you are following this closely with more frequency, we are living unprecedented times and most people don't realize it like they are supposed to
很高兴你越来越频繁地追踪这个事件，我们现在正处于前所未有的时代，只是大多数人根本没有意识到。
@anthonyc8499
I was told the new USA President was not a warmonger and nobody would start a war because 47 was so intimidating and respected by everyone.
有人告诉我新一任美国总统不是个战争贩子，没人会挑起战争，因为“47号总统”太令人敬畏、受人尊重了。
@theironcup
I remember watching your 'what a Russian assualt on Ukraine would look like' video back in 2022. It made me scared in a way I hadn't really known I could be before, knowing that tens of thousands of people were about to die. This video makes me feel the same thing.
我记得你在2022年做过一支“如果俄罗斯进攻乌克兰会是怎样”的视频，那是我第一次感到真正的恐惧，因为我知道数万人就要死去了，而这支视频又让我产生了同样的感觉。
@RoyalFusilier
As they used to say, "I'm not stupid, I'm not expendable, and I'm not going." If the American government wants another pointless war, let it be one at home instead.
就像以前有人说的：“我不是傻子，不是炮灰，也不会去参战。”如果美国政府想再打一场毫无意义的战争，那不如让它在本土开打吧。
@newbeginning1510
Trump said Biden would start World War 3 and that none of this would happen if he were president
..meanwhile, he’s cheering on a war with Iran, backing Israel unconditionally, and acting like war is a campaign strategy. So much for being the ‘peace president.’
特朗普曾说拜登会引发第三次世界大战，说要是他当总统这些事都不会发生…… 结果现在他却在为和伊朗的战争叫好，无条件地支持以色列，还把战争当成竞选策略。这就是所谓的“和平总统”？
@amirfarahbakhsh2960
Many people, including myself, criticize the regime in Iran, but regime change is fundamentally an issue for the Iranian people themselves; neither the West nor the United States has the right to intervene. When the U.S. intervened in Iraq and Afghanistan under the claim of “bringing democracy,” thousands of people lost their lives, and these regions were plunged into years of chaos. The current situation clearly shows how destructive such interventions can be. Instead of external intervention, the most effective solution is for people to resolve their issues through their own will.
包括我在内，很多人都批评伊朗的政权，但政权更替始终应当由伊朗人民自己决定，西方或美国都无权插手。 当年美国以“带来民主”为由介入伊拉克和阿富汗，结果成千上万人因此丧命，这些地区陷入了多年的混乱。 现在的局势清楚地说明这类干预有多么具有毁灭性。 最有效的方式是人民依靠自身的意志解决问题，而不是靠外部力量的干涉。
@Dunno-bz9ng
Lets all pray this scenario doesnt play out.
This will pretty much start a regional war the scale middle east hasnt seen since Iraq-Iran and Iraqi Invasion.
让我们祈祷这一局面不会真的发生。 一旦爆发，这场地区战争的规模将会超过自两伊战争与伊拉克入侵以来中东所经历的一切。
@michaelngfinance
I like how everything is so transparent! It’s as if they intentionally broadcast their military actions to lure others into fighting, spending money, and ultimately going bankrupt.
我喜欢这种一切都高度透明的局面！仿佛他们是故意把自己的军事行动广播出去，好把其他人拖进战争、花钱并最终破产。
@LongTran-kp3kz
As an American myself, this disgusts me to know end.
And it makes me so frustrated that I can't do anything about it!
作为一个美国人，这让我极度厌恶。 更让我沮丧的是我对此完全无能为力！
@Vishnu-rf5wk
"Sometimes power makes its own rules and the world has no choice but to accept it and move on" , A great quote, sums up many other global conflicts as well.
“有时候权力会自定规则，世界只能接受并继续前进。” 一句话道尽了许多全球冲突的本质。
@SrdjanPavlovic11080
Brought to you by the same analysis that missed everything about the Russia–Ukraine war...
The GBU cannot penetrate 61 meters of concrete, rather SOFT SOIL!!!
It can penetrate approximately 18 meters of reinforced concrete or 8 to 10 meters of granite rock.
这又是出自那些对俄乌战争完全判断失误的分析家之手…… GBU（巨型钻地弹）炸弹根本穿不透61米的混凝土，那只是穿透松软土层的数据！ 对钢筋混凝土，它最多能打穿18米；对花岗岩也就8到10米而已。
@mohamedali-lp2ex
As America and Israel have Nuclear Weapons every country in the world has the right to have them
既然美国和以色列都有核武器，那世界上每个国家也都有权拥有核武器。
@pearl-on-the-press
There are two sides of me. The reasonable more timid and resourceful side that staunchly opposes war, needless death, and drawn out unnecessary and expensive conflict. Then there's the American side of me that sees a massive mobilization of our badass military that says, "Fuck yeah, go kick some ass."
我内心有两个面。一个是理性、谨慎且务实的我，坚定反对战争、反对无意义的死亡和旷日持久的高代价冲突；另一个是“美国人”的那一面，当我看到我们那支牛逼的军队全面动员时，我会忍不住喊出一句：“干得漂亮，去收拾他们吧！”
@antoine9765
People keep touting that GBU thing as the wonder weapon to end it all, but 61m, as far as underground facilities & quarries goes, is peanuts.
No doubt the entrances could be busted, but then the heart of those facilities would be sealed, waiting for someone to dig a new entrance.
So US and Israel would actually need an occupational army and a lot of time. Which is quite another beast than "GBU will solve everything".
Please correct me if I'm wrong.
大家老把GBU炸弹吹成终结一切的神兵，但它的穿透力在61米的地下掩体或采石场的深度面前就是小儿科。 可能确实能炸塌入口，但核心设施很可能只会暂时封闭，等着有人再挖一个新的入口。 所以美国和以色列最终还是得派出占领部队并耗费大量的时间，这跟“GBU能搞定一切”的说法根本不是一回事。 如我有误，欢迎指正。
@garou1571
Funny how all this video talking about Iran making a nuke even tho Israel has an estimated 300 nukes illegally, and is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) on the other hand, Iran is a signatory to the NPT and has been under constant inspection by the IAEA.
真讽刺，整个视频都在谈伊朗搞核武器，仿佛忘了以色列非法拥有约300枚核弹，而且它根本不是《核不扩散条约》的签约国。而伊朗反倒是签了《核不扩散条约》，它也一直在接受国际原子能机构的持续检查。
@Угавинтернете
То есть израильский режим уже не скрывает своей террористической сущности? Подумать только, они в открытую говорят, что убивают гражданских и разрушают их дома, чтобы эти гражданские испугались и начали поддерживать режим Нетаньяху и его марионеток. Достаточно наивная тактика��. Это напоминает мне бомбардировки Лондона Гитлером, когда тонны бомб тратились не на военные цели, а на убийство обычных мирных жителей в попытке психически на них воздействовать. Однако эта тактика тогда не сработала. Почему сионисты думают, что подобная тактика сработает теперь?
Мне почему то кажется, что с каждым террактом Моссада местные жители наоборот всё больше будут поддерживать свои власти и своих военных.
也就是说，以色列政权已经不再掩饰它的恐怖主义本质了？想想看，他们居然公开承认杀害平民、摧毁民居，就是为了让这些平民害怕，从而转而支持内塔尼亚胡政权和他那一帮傀儡。真是太天真了。 这让我想起了希特勒轰炸伦敦的场景——当时吨吨炸弹不是针对军事目标，而是为了屠杀普通市民、在心理上摧毁他们，可这套当年没有奏效。那为何犹太复国主义者会以为这次就能成功？ 我反倒觉得随着摩萨德的每一次袭击，当地民众对自己政府和军队的支持只会更加坚定。
@dVector13
if Israels vassal state gets involved, Iran will be very hurt given how much firepower they have, but whether trump will be able to decisively help his master win the war is still not known. The US has had a horrible track record with regime change, after all.
如果以色列的附庸国也参与进来，伊朗确实会受到严重的打击，毕竟他们的火力实在太强大了。但特朗普是否真的能帮他的主子赢得这场战争还不好说，毕竟美国在政权更替上的“战绩”一直都很糟糕。
@alexsavastru8125
The current situation rhymes with the Iraqi War at the turn of the millennium. There is one key difference: the US needs a singular blunder to completely forsake their diplomatic and economic hegemony. Let us pray for wisdom.
当前的局势与千禧年初的伊拉克战争如出一辙，但这次有个关键的不同：美国只要犯一个错误，就可能彻底丧失它的外交和经济霸权，愿我们仍能保有理智和智慧。
@jamesgates1074
Has bombing a country ever caused the people to overthrow their government? No, people rally around the flag and fight back harder. The UK was bombed, North Vietnam was bombed Yemen, Afghanistan all were heavily bombed, none surrendered. Forces move underground and resist.
轰炸一个国家，有哪次真的促使人民推翻自己的政府了？从来没有。人们只会团结在国旗下，更加奋力反抗。英国、北越、也门、阿富汗——这些国家都曾被重度轰炸，但没有一个投降，反而是武装力量转入地下并继续抵抗。
@pizaclatonddd3081
Forever Wars it's gonna be Forever Wars, do you really have to kill forever, or never Forever Wars it's gonna be forever wars do you really want to kill forever or never.
永无止境的战争就是永无止境的战争。你们真的想杀个不停吗？还是你们从不曾杀够？永无止境的战争，真的想就这样永远杀下去吗？还是从未真正想停手？
@sourstateofmind5944
“We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.”
5 months later, and this is where we are.
“我们评估成功，不只是看我们赢下了哪些战斗，也看我们结束了哪些战争，或许最重要的是我们避免了哪些战争。” ——五个月后，我们却到了这步田地。
@dmmmwerd
If you fire a rocket from a civilian building, and that building is bombed, any casualties in that building are on you, not the one who launched the bomb in retaliation.
如果你从平民建筑里发射火箭，然后那栋建筑被轰炸了，那造成的伤亡应该由你而不是对方的还击者负责。
@blackwatertv7018
Maybe it’s all in my head but, the way the supreme leader is speaking and I mean the Iranian supreme leader (not Donald Trump) it almost sounds like he has a few aces up his sleeves.
This is not the kind of rhetoric of someone who’s leading a nation that’s essentially all alone at this point this is the rhetoric of someone who has some heavy hitters in his corner and is ready to throw down.
也许是我多想了，但伊朗最高领袖的发言方式（不是特朗普）听起来就像手里还藏着几张王牌。他的语气不像一个孤立无援的国家的领导人，倒更像是一个背后有重量级盟友、已经准备开打的角色。
@adam_movie_reviews
America can get locked and not refuel their jets in Ireland. We are sick of this madness. How have all the Wars since WW2 gone for America? Vietnam? Iraq, Afghanistan? Didn’t really work out so well. Maybe resolve your own issues, rather than funding wars.
美国在爱尔兰会被封锁、加不到油，我们早就受够了这种疯狂了。二战以来美国打的每场战争的结局怎么样？越南？伊拉克？阿富汗？都没什么好下场。也许你们该先解决自己国内的问题，而不是不停地资助战争。
@rahulnegi4724
As a History major... A scary amount of similarities between pre-WWI and today. Most of all, every country has brand new toys they're just itching to use. Of course, we will suffer - not our leaders.
作为一名历史专业出身的人……我看到当下与一战前的局势有着惊人相似之处。最重要的是现在每个国家都手握新式武器，一个个都迫不及待想拿出来试试。但遭殃的永远都是我们这些普通人——不是那些高高在上的领导人。
@SamW-n1n
We've seen Israeli commandos operating in iran, i dont think it's beyond the realm of possibility that we see a direct action strikes on nuclear sites after significant prepping from air strikes
我们已经看到以色列特种部队在伊朗境内活动，我不觉得他们会就此停手——很可能在大规模空袭之后，他们会对伊朗的核设施展开直接打击。
@万物流転-r6i
仕組まれている戦争･･･
一体、誰が、裏で命令を下しているのだろうか？
この戦争で、利益を得る輩たちも、喜んでいるのかも知れない･･･
悲しいことだ･･･アーメン
这场战争仿佛是被精心策划的…… 到底是谁在幕后发号施令？ 或许那些能从中牟利的人此刻正心满意足地暗笑着…… 真是令人心痛啊……阿门。
@DobromirManchev
The closing comment was fucking dark!
I am not an USA fan in general, but you have to acknowledge force when it's on such a different level, no matter who wields it...
结尾那句话实在太黑暗了！ 我并不是一个美国的支持者，但当某种力量已经强大到这种地步——无论是谁掌控它，我们都得正视。
@MrTommispilot
I don't think he'll ultimately order an attack. He's postponed his decision for two weeks, which, as we all know, means he's backing down (fortunately in this case).
我觉得他最终不会下令发动袭击。 他已经把决定推迟了两周——大家都明白，这在政治上意味着退缩（这次算是万幸）。
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