Economics Explained：为什么印度不会成为下一个中国？

译者
随风起舞

2023-02-19 13:22:21

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Economics Explained：为什么印度不会成为下一个中国？

本文译自Youtube，原标题：India Will Not Be The Next China

Up until 1990 India was slightly richer than China on a per capita basis, but since then China's economy has grown far faster than India's. In this video we look at the structural issues in India's economy have thus far prevented it from achieving the same level of economic success as China.

直到1990年，印度的人均收入还略高于中国，但从那以后，中国的经济增长速度远远快于印度。在这段视频中，我们将探讨印度经济中存在的结构性问题，正是这些问题迄今为止阻碍着印度取得与中国相同水平的经济成功。

raj sehar

I was from rural india ...during my childhood days saw electric power only for 4 hrs but now things changed n improved alot. We are getting electricity power 18-24 hrs a day. India improved alot in last 15-17 years.

我来自印度的农村地区……在我童年的日子里，电力供应每天只有4个小时，但现在情况发生了很大的变化，我们每天有18-24小时的电力供应，印度在过去的15-17年中有了很大的进步。

ocen

I''m indonesian and never been to india but i hope india will be prosperous. The goverment and all of its people. Its nice to see the shift of power from the west to asia. Hope my country also achieve that and everyone will have roof above their heads, no one sleeps hungry. ��

我是印尼人，我从未去过印度，但我希望印度的政府及其全体人民能够富裕起来。我很高兴看到权力从西方转移到亚洲，希望我的国家也能做到这一点，让每个人都有自己的房子，没有人饿着肚子睡觉。

keshav kumar

As an Indian, I want to say that we are not rivaling anyone but improving ourselves and reclaiming what we lost due to colonial rule. We have no intention of beating or kicking someone. Indian traditions guide us to see inward and not outward. We as an individuals, society, nation and world are our best friend as well as worst enemy at the same time. It is up to us what we want to act as.

作为一个印度人，我想说的是我们不是在与任何人竞争，我们只是在改善自己，找回我们因殖民统治而失去的东西。我们无意打败谁，印度的传统引导我们向内看，而不是向外看。作为一个个体、社会、国家和世界，我们既是最好的朋友，我们也是最大的敌人。我们想扮演什么样的角色取决于我们自己。

Sudhanshu Tuti

The fact that India has uniquely transitioned from primary sector to tertiary sector skipping the manufacturing sector, so focusing on manufacturing can reap huge dividends at so many levels.

印度独特地跳过了制造业，直接从第一产业过渡到了第三产业，而专注于制造业可以在许多层面收获巨大的红利。

OmPrakash Mahanta

During my highschool I planned to leave India for a good life in a foreign country.

But in last 10 years I have seen so much change in the society and opportunities that I changed my mind and now I work for a MNC while living a King size life in India.

在我高中的时候，我计划离开印度，到国外去过好日子。
但在过去的10年里，我看到了印度社会的巨大变化和机会，于是我改变了主意，现在我在一家跨国公司工作，同时在印度过着国王般的生活。

I think most of the points mentioned holds true for India, but there are lot of changes happening and quickly. PLI scheme is introduced to boost manufacturing and it is already showing results. NLP was introduced few days ago that will reduce the logistics cost and target is to bring it to 10% (not good but decent compared to current standards). Infra is being built at crazy speed, national highways and railways to remote sections of India are being completed every few months. As a kid who grew up in 90s and have seen remnants of license raj, I am excited for the future of India and also as a person who has worked in China I am glad that India will never be China.

我认为上面提到的大多数观点对印度来说都是正确的，但有很多变化正在迅速发生。制造业促进计划（PLI）的引入是为了促进制造业的发展，它已经取得了成效。国家物流计划（NLP）几天前推出，它将降低物流成本，目标是将其降到10%（虽然还不够，但与目前的标准相比还不错）。基础设施正在以疯狂的速度建设，通往印度偏远地区的国家公路和铁路每隔几个月就完成一条。作为一个在上世纪90年代长大，见过许可证制度残余的孩子，我对印度的未来感到兴奋。作为一个曾在中国工作过的人，我很高兴印度永远不会成为中国。

ken chan

India has a loooong way to go on infrastructure. It took China about 30 years to achieve what it is now, from India's current level, at China speed.

印度在基础设施方面还有很长的路要走。中国用了大约30年的时间以中国的速度才从印度目前的水平达到现在的水平。

kamil shah

@ken chan definately it will take a lot of time but the good thing is goverment knows this! The most important thing will be to see how and at what percentage india manage to grow after the war between Ukraine and Russia over!

@ken chan这肯定会花很多时间，但好在印度政府知道这一点！最重要的是看看在乌克兰和俄罗斯的战争结束后，印度如何以及以多大的比例增长！

Akshit Kanwar

@ken chan India is currently double China's Speed. The gap between India and China in 2012 was at its peak. Which was a 30-year gap. Now it's 25 year Gap and soon it will be 20 years. You can see all the predictions by 2050 China will surely be no.1 but the gap between India and China in 2022 is 5 times in 2050 China's economy will not even double that of India. There will be 1/5 of the gap which is now by 2050. So hold on. You should study the economy and how it works. India is on right track. The confidence we have is complete. Our Road projects around 30000 km national high-speed rail and highway will be complete by 2025 Once we hit a 10 trillion dollar economy. Adding 2 trillion a year after that is not that hard.

Seems like China thinks 3.5 trillion is so small that it will take India ages to close the gap with china but seems like Chinese are weeker in math than Indians if they think this way

India has 20 years wait. Its not a long way to go. If a country can catch up with other country in one generation time then its fairly fast. For India its about half generation. US is not in competition. West is falling so there is no reason to compare with US. But we can look at US as inspiration to maintain global dominance for so long because in China case. They will hardly able to see a unipolar world

@ken chan 印度目前的增长速度是中国的两倍。2012年，印度和中国之间的差距达到了顶峰，这是一个30年的差距，而现在是25年，很快将是20年。你可以看到所有的预测都显示到2050年，中国肯定会排名第一。而2022年印度和中国之间的差距是5倍，到2050年中国的经济甚至不会达不到印度的一倍。到2050年，两国之间的差距将只有现在的1/5。所以，坚持住。你应该研究一下经济及其运作方式。印度走上了正确的轨道，我们完全有信心。我们约30000公里的国家高速铁路和公路项目将在2025年建成，一旦我们达到10万亿美元的经济规模，后每年增加2万亿美元并不难。

似乎中国认为 3.5 万亿美元的GDP是如此之小，以至于印度需要很长时间才能缩小与中国的差距，但如果中国人这样想的话，他们的数学能力似乎比印度人更差。

印度还要等待20年，这不算很长。如果一个国家能在一代人的时间内赶上另一个国家，那么这个速度是相当快的。对印度来说，这大约只是半代人的时间而已。美国不在比赛中，因为西方正在衰落，所以没有理由去和美国比。但我们可以将美国视为长期保持全球主导地位的动力，因为在中国就是这样做的，他们很难看到单极世界。

Akshit Kanwar

@ken chan PRoblem with fast growning societies like China and Korea is demographic issue and Social issue. Your new generation will turn out dumb like in USA. USA was in its peak in world war era and 1960s because they were working hard and earning there wealth. NEw generation of US kids have everything for granted. Hence drop in productivity and nationalism. China is very energetic nation and totally worked hard but the growth was too fast for society to catch up. The same generation has seen so much changes that they cannot handle these changes leading to decline in birth faster than USA. Just like Korea. I want India to grow stabily and fast but not too fast

@ken chan像中国和韩国这样快速发展的社会面临着人口问题和社会问题。你们的新一代会变得像美国人一样愚蠢，美国在二战时期和20世纪60年代处于鼎盛时期，因为他们努力工作并挣了大钱。对美国新一代的孩子来说，一切都是理所当然的，因此他们的生产力和国家主义开始下降。虽然中国是一个充满活力的国家，人民工作很努力，但由于发展太快，社会层面赶不上。同一代人经历了如此多的变化，以至于他们无法应对这些变化，就像韩国一样，这导致中国出生率下降的速度比美国更快。所以我希望印度稳定快速地发展，但也不要太快。

ken chan

@Akshit Kanwar I'm sorry that I can't agree with your point. It is far easier to develop at a high speed when you at a low startpoint, but you meet the bottle neck, you'll realize how difficult it is. I'm afraid that India has way more domestic problems than China does. India has potential, but to catch up, easy talking, hard doing.

@Akshit Kanwar 很抱歉我不能同意你的观点。当你的起点很低时，高速发展要容易得多，但当你遇到瓶颈时，你就会意识到这有多么困难。恐怕印度的国内问题比中国更多，虽然印度有潜力，但要迎头赶上，说起来容易，但做起来难。

Yashvardhan Ojha

You can literally see the progress on ground.

My villege is now well connected with cities with great highways.

Private investments into opening small businesses have increased.

Just a week ago someone opened a cafe that serves pizza !

These are the signs of growth .

UPI is present everywhere,even the hawkers are comfortable in accepting digital payments.These hawkers can be considered a part of formal economy in near future as we move towards higher level of digitalisation.

Here in India we are literally witnessing a massive change , something like a slow and steady revolution.

你可以从字面上看到实际的进展。
我的村庄现在与拥有高速公路的城市紧密相连。
私人投资开办小企业的情况也有所增加。
就在一周前，有人开了一家提供披萨的咖啡馆！
这些都是发展的迹象。
统一支付接口（UPI）无处不在，甚至连小贩也乐于接受数字支付。随着我们迈向更高水平的数字化，这些小贩可以在不久的将来被视为正式经济的一部分。
在印度，我们确实目睹了一场巨大的变革，这就像一场缓慢而稳定的革命。

OmPrakash Mahanta

As someone working in the IT export industry ,the incredible investments that I am seeing these days by multinational companies in India is truly mind blowing.

I make around 1200 dollars every month and live like king in Noida,UP because of my nation's PPP.

作为一个从事IT出口行业的人，我最近在印度看到的跨国公司令人难以置信的投资真的让人振奋。

我每个月挣1200美元左右，由于我的国家的购买力平价水平，我在北方邦的诺伊达过着国王般的生活。

delicious619

Every bit of news I see about India impresses me with the overall development of the country. It has a long way to go, but I think it is moving in the right direction faster than most other developing countries.

It seems to value skilled labor and sustainable practices compared to other developing nations. It has a sizable population of well-educated young people. There are also many Indian people who have emigrated to other more economically strong countries in the west, making it more likely that business will come back to India.

My hope is that India can lead by example for other developing countries to follow.

我看到的关于印度的每一条新闻都让我对印度的整体发展印象深刻。虽然它还有很长的路要走，但我认为它比大多数其他发展中国家更快地朝着正确的方向前进。

与其他发展中国家相比，它似乎更重视熟练的劳动力和可持续的做法。它有一大批受过良好教育的年轻人，也有许多印度人移民到西方其他经济实力更强的国家，这使得生意更有可能回到印度。

我希望印度能为其他发展中国家树立榜样。

Sentrigan

I think the basic vs. complex manufacturing problem you highlighted is also applicable to services -- answering a phone in a call center is simple enough to have basically anyone do it, but more complex (and better paying) service jobs require different and harder to get skills

There's also a lot of factors you skipped, such as 12 hour work shifts, needing permission to quit your job, etc., which point to India not moving towards an advanced services economy, instead opting for a digital version of a factory floor job, that is, you "doing the needful" for scraps

Having worked with indians for some years now, I agree India has potential, but like other countries with "potential" I doubt they'll ever achieve it, since the people with the power to make that happen are not interested in doing that

Basically, unless India starts investing in upskilling their workforce, this is just a pipe dream

我认为你强调的复杂的制造业面临的问题也适用于服务业——虽然在呼叫中心接电话很简单，基本上任何人都能做到，但更复杂（而且薪水更高）的服务业工作需要不同的、更难获得的技能。

你还忽略了很多其他因素，比如12小时轮班，需要获得辞职许可等，这表明印度还没有走向先进的服务型经济，而是选择了工厂车间工作的数字版本，也就是说，你在为残羹剩饭“做必要的事”。

在与印度人合作了几年之后，我同意印度有潜力，但就像其他有“潜力”的国家一样，我怀疑他们是否能够实现这一目标，因为有能力实现这一点的人对吃别人的残羹冷炙不感兴趣。

基本上，除非印度开始投资提高劳动力技能，否则这只是一个白日梦。

Varun Dhawan

Good video. Despite all the challenges mentioned in the video today India is growing at 7-8% per year. All the so called Tiger economies of Asia had same growth rates.

Look at the double digit inflation rates in all major economies and then look at inflation rate in India which is between 6-7% although high but better than others.

India is growing at this pace with all these impedances. If all these impedances are removed India can attain the double digit growth rate.

好视频。尽管视频中提到了所有的挑战，但印度经济仍以每年7-8%的速度在增长。亚洲所有所谓的“小虎”经济体都有与之相同的增长率。

看看所有主要经济体的两位数的通胀率，再看看印度的虽然高达6-7%，但比其他国家要好的通胀率。

印度正以这样的速度发展，虽然面临着所有这些障碍，但如果消除了这些障碍，印度可以实现两位数的经济增长率。

Defiancy

As an Indian I’m proud of what India has become. That being said the lack of ability for India to manufacture world class products/tech on its own is what’s holding us back. Only industries that don’t require complex manufacturing have been developing quick. Unless that changes India’s advancement will be limited to the large populations ability to make large numbers of less complicated and less profitable products. A countries growth is reliant on the totality of what it can produce, because when one field advances it makes advances in other fields easier due to the access of advancements in technology.

作为一个印度人，我为印度的成就感到骄傲。尽管如此，印度自身缺乏制造世界级产品/技术的能力，只有那些不需要复杂制造的行业发展迅速，这是阻碍我们前进的原因。除非这一点得到改变，否则印度的进步将仅限于大量的人口生产大量不太复杂和利润较低的产品的能力。一个国家的发展取决于它所能生产的全部产品，因为当一个领域进步时，由于技术的进步，它会使其他领域的进步变得更容易。

Richard F

There has always been talks about India "Leapfrogging" and skipping the manufacturing stage to become a Services Superpower, I am skeptical. Almost all advanced, rich economies are manufacturing powerhouses (think Japan, US, Germany, China, South Korea, Taiwan). Advanced nations export their high value products globally and that's how they make money and become wealthy. It is very difficult to export high-value add services. And for a populous economy like India, manufacturing can utilize the large labour pool in the country benefiting the masses instead of the privileged few that can go to school and learn English.

There is no playbook for a country becoming an economic juggernaut from going from primary industry to services. Why not follow in the same footsteps as Japan, the 4 Asian Tigers, and China who got wealthy from manufacturing? This is a well-trotted development model.

一直有人谈论印度的“跨越”制造阶段成为服务业超级大国，我对此表示怀疑，因为几乎所有发达、富裕的经济体都是制造业强国（想想日本、美国、德国、中国、韩国和台湾地区）。发达国家将其高价值产品出口到全球，这就是他们赚钱致富的方式，而出口高附加值服务非常困难。对于像印度这样人口众多的经济体来说，制造业可以利用该国庞大的劳动力资源并惠及大众而不是那些能够上学和学习英语的少数特权阶层。

从初级工业到服务业，一个国家要成为一个经济巨人没有什么捷径。为什么不效仿日本、亚洲四小虎和中国，像这些国家一样从制造业中致富呢？这可是一个运行良好的发展模式。

Tara Rani

India might not be the leader of manufacturing but India is the king of Service sector. No one is near India in this sector. The only wrong decision India made was that India directly jumped from Agriculture to Service instead of Industrialization.

虽然印度可能不是制造业的领导者，但印度是服务业之王。在这一领域，没有人接近印度。印度唯一错误的决定是直接从农业转向了服务业，而不是工业化。

Rana Talukdar

I am Indian, here social, economic and educational disparity is so much that India will be able to supply all kind of manpower for next 50 yrs. From space scientist to, biotechnologist to textile workers to senitary workers. Another point is that unlike china India is a free society here growth will be sustainable wd a robust domestic consumption therefore it will be somewhat immune to global anomalies.