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以色列-伊朗战争改变了一切，此次两国冲突会不会把世界拖入第三次世界大战？
本文译自Youtube，原标题：The Israel-Iran War Just Changed Everything
@werothegreat
"they could delay Iran by 1 to 2 years" Iran has been 1 to 2 years away from a nuclear bomb for the past 20 years
“他们或许能将伊朗推迟1到2年”，但过去20年来，伊朗一直都是“距离核弹只有1到2年”。
@trailfork7815
game title: the US not involving itself in any war in the middle east
difficulty: impossible
游戏名称：美国不参与中东任何战争 难度：不可能
@Hope24-g1r
I am Iranian. I had and still have a beautiful country. My country has had and will have kind and just people. This may be my last message to the people of the world. Like all of you, we have the right to live.
我是伊朗人。我曾经拥有、现在仍然拥有一个美丽的国家，我的国家过去有、未来也会有善良而正直的人民。这也许是我给世界人民的最后一条留言，就像你们所有人一样，我们也有生存的权利。
@DOCTUSCUMSCIENTIA
Just watched your video from 5 months ago on how Israel was creating an air corridor to attack Iran by destroying Syria’s anti-aircraft defenses in the middle of the chaos of Assad’s fall. You were on the money, sir.
我刚刚看了你五个月前的视频，讲的是以色列如何在阿萨德政权倒台的混乱中摧毁叙利亚的防空系统，从而为攻击伊朗打造空中走廊。你说得完全正确，先生。
@DibbzTV
As a History major... A scary amount of similarities between pre-WWI and today. Most of all, every country has brand new toys they're just itching to use. Of course, we will suffer - not our leaders.
作为一名历史专业的学生……我发现今天和一战前的情形之间有太多令人不安的相似之处。最重要的是各国都拥有全新的武器，而且蠢蠢欲动。受苦的当然是我们而不是领导人。
@austrogalant
I'm shocked that nobody is talking about Netanjahu's personal gain. Disregarding wether the strikes were justified or not, everybody seems to have forgotten that Netanjahu is only allowed to stay in power as long as Isreal is at war. I'm not on Iran's side, but we should talk about how he has a personal interest in a perpetual state of war, so his impeachment can't go forward.
我震惊的是没有人谈论内塔尼亚胡的个人得失。不论这次打击是否正当，大家似乎都忘了，只要以色列处于战争状态，内塔尼亚胡就可以继续掌权。虽然我不支持伊朗，但我们必须谈一谈他为何需要战争不断，因为这样他的弹劾程序就无法推进。
@DTDTish
Just a correction to this video. You said that Iran's attacks might lead to a vote of no confidence in Israel, but that is actually impossible now for at least 6 months. There was failed a no-confidence in Israel just before this broke out, and because it failed the opposition can't call a new no confidence vote for 6 months.
更正一下这个视频。你说伊朗的袭击可能会导致以色列出现不信任投票，但实际上在接下来的6个月内这根本不可能。在冲突爆发前，以色列刚刚进行过一次不信任投票，但投票失败，根据程序反对党在6个月内不能再次提出不信任案。
@constellationorion8679
I can never understand these leaders who think attacking a country will get them to comply or back down. It’s like they have no understanding of human psychology. When people are attacked they want to fight back.
我永远无法理解那些认为攻击一个国家就能让对方屈服的领导人，他们好像完全不了解人类的心理。当人们被攻击时，他们只会想要反击。
@Hurizai
“Despite best efforts, precision strikes rarely ends with precision outcomes.”
I wish my ChatGPT could come up such powerful words.
“即使付出最大的努力，精确打击也很少能带来精确的结果。” 真希望我的ChatGPT也能说出这样有力量的话。
@mehmood3526
America was definitely involved in the defense of Israel. Had it not been for American and Jordanian defenses Protecting Israel, it would have had a much harder hit to its infrastructure.
美国显然参与了保护以色列。如果没有美军和约旦的防御系统的帮助，以色列的基础设施遭到的破坏会严重得多。
@aminsafari-is4uf
May God bless all the souls of those who have died in wars and grant them peace.
Iranians are not bad people — just like in every nation, there are both good and bad individuals.
I am someone who wants peace.
I don’t want to see any human being killed.
愿上帝保佑所有在战争中死去的灵魂并赐予他们安宁。 伊朗人不是坏人——就像所有国家一样，那里既有好人也有坏人。 我是一个渴望和平的人。 我不想看到任何一个人被杀害。
@AEVMU
Hopefully the Iranian people will be able to break free from their terrible government and get back to life how it was 40 years ago for them. Bikinis at the pool, and the freedom to express themselves.
希望伊朗人民能早日摆脱那个可怕的政府，回到40年前的生活（在泳池边穿比基尼、自由地表达自我）。
@mehrankhavary480
As an Iranian I wanted to thank you for the video. I hope one day we can get rid of these tyrant regime leaders.
Also, among all the videoes that I watched yours is the only one tjat mentioned Iran's previous flag(the beautiful lion & sword flag)
Thanks again
作为一名伊朗人，我想感谢你发布这部视频。我希望有一天我们能摆脱这些暴政政权的领导人。 另外，在我看过的所有视频中，只有你提到了伊朗过去的那面国旗（那面美丽的狮子与佩剑旗）。 再次感谢。
@JohnKim-i3s
For Israel, this is a chance they've been waiting for since 1989. With Syria Assad regime gone, Russia busy at home front, and war with Hamas gave opportunity to attack Iran military and nuclear facilities. You know, Israel and Iran used to be close allies and Iran pushed UN to recognize Israel as a sovereign nation. That was before 1979 Iranian revolution, though. Anyway, we now know how good Chinese air defense is. Iran military replaced Soviet era air defense system with latest Chinese stuff 10 years ago. Unfortunately, it didn't kicked in when F35 showed up. Maybe mossad sabotaged them so Israel can attack or what Iranian bought was Chinese tofu dreg. Currently, Saudi and China are staying quite. That could change if Trump gets his way.
对以色列来说，这是他们自1989年以来一直等待的机会。叙利亚的阿萨德政权垮台，俄罗斯在本国陷入困局，而与哈马斯的战争为攻击伊朗的军事和核设施创造了机会。你知道吗？以色列和伊朗曾是亲密的盟友，伊朗还曾推动联合国承认以色列的主权地位，不过那是1979年伊朗革命之前的事了。总之，现在我们知道中国的防空系统到底有多强了。伊朗军方10年前用最新的中国装备替换了苏联时代的防空系统。可惜当F35出现时，这些系统没有启动。也许是摩萨德破坏了它们，好让以色列发动袭击，或者伊朗买到的只是中国的“豆腐渣装备”。目前，沙特和中国保持沉默。但如果特朗普得逞，局势可能会改变。
@TheSmokingHatManSeesYou
It all makes sense n0w, iraq, and suria had to go first, in ordernto gain access to iran easier. No defended airspace anymore in either fallen country, this is fascinating. This has been a long twrm plan.
现在一切都说得通了，伊拉克和叙利亚必须先垮台，这样就能更容易地接近伊朗。这两个国家已经没有防空体系了，真是耐人寻味。这是一个长期筹划的计划。
@mahookshy
An Iranian attack on the Gulf nations would trigger a response from countries that collectively operate over 700 combat aircraft , something I doubt Iran would be willing to risk.
如果伊朗攻击海湾国家，那将引发一个拥有超过700架战斗机的国家集团的联合反击，我不认为伊朗会愿意冒这个险。
@GnosticAtheist
The amusing part is if Russia has made a few deals that includes nuclear material. What if the Iranian regime already have nukes, and a revolt actually starts? In the chaos the missiles are deployed towards Israel, and Israel responds. Sounds like a nice dramatic story that would fit well with the current political climate.
有趣的是假如俄罗斯已经和伊朗有了包括核材料在内的秘密交易呢？如果伊朗政权早就拥有核武器，接着国内爆发起义，混乱之中导弹射向以色列，而以色列随即发起反击呢？这个剧情听起来挺戏剧性的，还挺符合当下的政治气候。
@chiron14pl
helpful analysis. Moments ago word came out that Cyprus has conveyed some "messages" from Iran to Israel, even as strikes and counterstrikes continue. Very rapidly developing situation
分析非常有帮助。就在刚刚传出消息说塞浦路斯向以色列转达了伊朗的某些“信息”，而此时双方的打击与反击仍在继续，局势正在迅速演变。
@LXHFIRENKING
Not sure when the script was written but at current rate the question is not what means Iran will choose to respond, but rather what means are left, especially given how successful Israel's SEAD operations are so far.
我不确定这个剧本是什么时候写的，但以目前的情况来看，问题已经不是伊朗会选择用什么方式回应，而是他们还剩下什么方式，尤其是考虑到目前以色列压制敌方防空的行动（SEAD）极为成功的情况下。
@ahmedkhalhory4484
there is a difference between preemptive and preventative strikes. in this case israels attack is was not preemptive, which is agaist international laws
先发制人的打击（preemptive）和预防性打击（preventative）是两回事，这次以色列的攻击并不是违反国际法的先发制人的打击。
@crochou8173
This would be so hard to explain to ancient people "so basically we're fighting with the enemy 1000+ km away which even has a country in middle that has nothing to do with this"
这事要是跟古人解释会特别难：“所以我们基本上是在和一个距离超过1000公里的敌人作战，中间还隔着一个和这事毫无关系的国家”。
@EnkiSvohden
I am witnessing Iran showing their cards, and they are a paper tiger. Much like the world has seen of Russia in modern combat, Iran has revealed that they lack the capability to truly strike as they say they will. They lack coordination, precision, and overall air-power. The fact that Israel can strike so accurately and fly so deep into Iranian territory shows the huge gap between each country's abilities.
我亲眼看着伊朗亮出底牌，结果他们不过是纸老虎。就像世界在现代战争中看到的俄罗斯一样，伊朗显然没有实现他们宣称的打击能力。他们缺乏协调、精确性和整体空中战力。以色列能实施如此精准的打击并深入伊朗腹地发动空袭，这已经清楚地表明两国在能力上的巨大差距。
@eytrix
Considering Iran's slogan contains things like "death to all jews" and "death to Israel", I think its pretty fair to assume that Iran is far less concerned about regime change, and far more interested in doing what they say they intend to do.
考虑到伊朗的口号中包含“消灭所有犹太人”和“消灭以色列”这样的字眼，我觉得我们有理由相信与其说伊朗关心的是什么政权更替，他们更在乎的是把那些口号变成现实。
@goldengriffon
I've heard that most of Iran's armaments in use thus far are 20-30 year old tech, and they've largely been holding back the more impressive stuff. If true, perhaps they're hoping to drain the Iron Dome capabilities with lighter stuff at first, making it more likely the big stuff that comes later can get through.
我听说到目前为止，伊朗所使用的大多数武器是20到30年前的老技术，他们很可能还没拿出真正厉害的东西。如果这是真的，也许他们是在用轻型武器先耗尽“铁穹”的防御能力，为后面的大杀器打开突破口。
@ytr5616
For far too long, the indigenous nations within Iran—Turkmans, Kurds, Baloch, Ahwazi Arabs, and especially the people of South Azerbaijan—have endured systemic repression under Iranian occupation. The Azeri people's struggle for self-determination has been ongoing since the fall of the Azerbaijan People's Government in 1946, when Iranian forces crushed the region’s brief independence. It is time the international community recognizes these suppressed nations and supports their right to independence and freedom from decades of colonial-style domination.
在伊朗境内，土库曼人、库尔德人、俾路支人、阿瓦士阿拉伯人，尤其是南阿塞拜疆人民，长期以来都遭受着系统性的压迫。自1946年阿塞拜疆人民政府被伊朗军队镇压、短暂独立被终结以来，阿塞拜疆人的自决斗争一直未曾停止。国际社会是时候承认这些受压迫民族的存在并支持他们摆脱几十年来殖民式的统治的独立权利了。
@serene-cat-aah
It’s so funny because a lot of the Iranians are actually relieved and hope that the government crumbles and those oppressors (that thousands have been killed protesting) go away. Also the Iranian people are one of the nicest people while the government is almost the worst government ever, government does not equal people.
Sorry for the rant
真是讽刺，很多伊朗人其实感到如释重负，希望这个政府垮台，那些压迫者（为了抗议他们已有数千人丧命）彻底消失。而且伊朗人民是最善良的一群人之一，然而他们的政府却几乎是最糟糕的政府之一。政府不代表人民。 抱歉有点情绪化了。
@WhereTruthisShared
Very clear and concise analysis.....thank you for helping us understand the sick world we live in-I'm an American and I despise the betrayal of 'promises made-promises kept', as if no other lives matter. These people are evil, plan and simple.
非常清晰而简洁的分析……谢谢你帮我们理解这个病态的世界。我是美国人，我厌恶那种所谓“信守承诺”的背叛，好像别人的命根本不值一提。这些人就是邪恶，简单明了。
@masih1002
it's interesting that you are not mentioning the fact that the starting attack by Israel was illegal, and it's also interesting that you didn't mention the five F-35 jets that iran has taken down.
很有意思，你完全没有提到以色列发动的首轮攻击是非法的，也没有提到伊朗击落了五架F-35战机。
@Hope24-g1r
You know, the worst thing is that the people of Iran are alone and no country supports Iran. Instead, everyone is against Iran. There is no more humanity. I thought humanity could be found in advanced countries, but unfortunately, humanity has been extinguished for a long time.
你知道吗？最糟糕的是伊朗人民是孤立的，没有任何国家支持伊朗。相反，所有人都站在伊朗的对立面上。这个世界已经没有人性了。我原以为先进国家里还能找到人性，但遗憾的是人性早已灭绝。
@dsp793ch
As an Israeli, I can say that most people in Israel are indeed aware of the Green Line. For some reason, Matthew chose to speak only with ultra-Orthodox and religious extremists. As an Israeli citizen, I do not recognize the areas beyond the Green Line as legitimate parts of the State of Israel—and many other Israelis feel the same. This is the real situation in the country.
作为一名以色列人，我可以说大多数以色列人确实知道“绿线”的存在。不知道为什么，Matthew只采访了极端正统派和宗教极端分子。作为一名以色列公民，我不承认“绿线”之外的地区属于以色列国的合法的一部分——很多以色列人和我一样，这才是真实的国内情况。
@sincerusone
Well done. Just found you. The thing what comes up for me is the belief that Iran already is capable with nukes. The narrative from Netanyahu for almost 35 years is almost laughably childish. If you think, Iran is in close relationship with Pakistan, and they are publicly nuclear capable, then if I recall back in the day, when Musharraf was the leader and he admitted they had lost track of nukes and I think there was some story about one of their scientists leaked technical information. it’s not a big stretch to think that easily went to Iran all those decades ago. So I feel the regime in Israel is playing a very dangerous game putting the whole world at risk
做得好，我是刚刚发现你的。对我来说，一件值得思考的事是——我相信伊朗早已具备核武能力。内塔尼亚胡三十多年来一直重复的那些说法简直像小孩子的话一样可笑。你想想，伊朗和巴基斯坦关系紧密，而巴基斯坦是公开拥有核武的国家。如果我没记错，当年穆沙拉夫还是领导人时曾承认他们一度失去了对核武的追踪，而且还有说法称他们的科学家曾泄露过技术信息。所以这些年里，这些东西流入伊朗也不是不可能的事。所以我认为以色列政权正在玩一场极其危险的，把整个世界置于风险之中的游戏。
END
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